“Computers are everywhere except in productivity statistics”: Robert Solow's now legendary statement from 1987 illustrates the idea that the spread of Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) in the US economy do not seem to have translated into significant productivity and growth gains. The idea has been revived by the observation of stalling labor productivity in the US and in Europe, notably since the 2008 crisis. Are we thus doomed to secular stagnation, i.e. a long-term situation of negligible growth? Can the revolution of AI change the game? Have ideas really become harder to get? Has the ecological issue become an insurmountable obstacle for future growth? What about the demography issue? Is there a role for public policies in allowing innovation to bear fruit?
In order to understand what is at stake, this debate will feature two exceptional speakers, Robert Gordon and Philippe Aghion, who will confront their views as regards the future of growth in the long run.

Robert Gordon, who is Professor at Northwestern University, is “techno-pessimistic”. He argues that the “one big wave” of productivity that occurred in the 20th century was an isolated incident in the history of humanity. He isolates six headwinds that stand in the way of ever-sustained growth, among which demographic trends, growing inequality, climate change payback or debt overhang. In his book The Rise and Fall of American Growth (2016), Robert Gordon uses the parable of the fruit tree, arguing that the ‘low-hanging fruit’ of technological breakthroughs have already been picked, and that the picking will in the future become increasingly difficult.

Philippe Aghion, who is Professor at the College de France, INSEAD and the London School of Economics, is more of a “techno-optimist”. He notably argues that productivity growth is poorly measured, casting doubt on the idea of secular stagnation and rehabilitating the theory of creative destruction. He also defends the idea that the ICT and AI revolutions improve the production of ideas, thus generating growth. In his book The Power of Creative Destruction (joint with Céline Antonin and Simon Bunel, 2021), he argues that the recent decline in productivity is largely due to institutions and public policies – notably competition policy - that are ill-adapted to technological revolutions.